The Caspian connection- Thanks to http://www.kavaseri.com/blog/?p=11

 Thanks to http://www.kavaseri.com/blog/?p=11

by K V Krishnaswamy

NEITHER THE portfolio he held nor the capital he visited was of the stuffto excite the imagination of the general public. So when Mr. VazhapadiRamamurthy, Minister of Petroleum, returned from a visit to the capital ofKazakhastan early this month he caused no ripple in a Delhi that was anywaytoo preoccupied with aftershocks, seismological and political. But thejoint commission discussions the Minister participated in and the measuresinitiated after these, together with the earlier interaction between thetwo countries at the trade and business levels, raise hope that there willbe an Indian presence, however minuscule, when the new century dawns on

what must be the globe’s strategically most important region.

Central Asia, by any reckoning, holds the key to the stability and securityof Eurasia and, by extension, of the world. If much of the second half ofthis century was dominated by the manoeuvrings for control of the oil inthe Gulf, with global powers involved in fierce competition, it will be theCaspian basin in Central Asia with its untapped oil and mineral wealth thatwill determine the course of global relations in the next century. The samegeopolitical logic dictates that whereas the determinant during the ColdWar decades was the destructive capacity of the weapons at your (or yourmaster’s) disposal, in the coming decades the deciding factor will begeoeconomics, more precisely its driving force of energy availability.Central Asia’s variously estimated deposits of oil and natural gas -besides gold and uranium – will guarantee the presence of all the global

players in strength in the region in the decades to come.

Of course, competition for strategic and commercial influence in CentralAsia is one of the hardest and oldest games in geopolitics. Venue of theGreat Game between Imperial Britain and Czarist Russia in the last centurywhen the jewel in contention was the Indian empire, the region had remainedinsulated for most of this century, forming part of the underbelly of theSoviet Union. The scramble for the region began even as the Soviet empirewas collapsing, leaving a dangerous vacuum. Politics, like nature, abhors

vacuum, ensuring the presence of new forces and new players on the scene.

The independence from Moscow that came with the disappearance of the SovietUnion has so far failed to bring stability to the region’s republics,ensuring that history will continue to repeat itself. Since the 15thcentury the region has mainly been organised politically from without, withRussia entering it decisively in the 1870s. Comprising the five formerSoviet republics of Kazakhastan, Kyrgystan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan andUzbekistan and Afghanistan, the region borders China, Russia, Iran andPakistan and the four cultural zones they represent. A more formidable mix

must be impossible to conjure.

It is at these crossroads that vital games are being played whose outcomewill have a strong bearing on India, economic, political and social. Thecountry’s age-old cultural ties with the region had remained dormant duringthe Soviet period. There was renewal when political contacts wereestablished with the new republics in the early Nineties. Thanks to theirpreoccupation with domestic affairs when most of these countries facedfundamentalist militancy, these contacts were not maintained. Changes ofgovernment in Delhi, too, contributed to a neglect of the relationship. Thecontacts are hopefully being renewed, as the joint commission sittingsattended by the Minister testify. Soon after the commission’s sessions,

Delhi hosted the President of Kyrgystan.

While the cultural links are being renewed and business and tradingopportunities in a variety of fields explored – as Central Asia’s initialinfatuation with the West wears out and it begins to look around forfriends and partners for progress – it is the oil sector that holds the keyto the interaction between India and these countries. India can offerlittle capital but its technical and technological knowhow can combinesuccessfully with third parties. It will no doubt be a painful grind in afield already full to the brim with big time players. In the past decadethe region has in fact witnessed unprecedented lobbying by Westerngovernments and multinational corporations which have invested heavily inprospecting for oil – and, more importantly, planning strategies for

transporting the products to the markets.

The task of transportation is proving the most daunting: bridging the widegap between the producer and his market. All the Caspian countries arelandlocked from their potential markets, without any outlet to theinternational transit system. The full utilisation of their resourcesdepends on the successful completion of secure routes to the high seas. Androute selection in a region with strong pulls and pressures is in turn

proving a marathon effort.

Of the many “best” routes, the favourites have been those flowing out toTurkey, a member of the Atlantic Alliance and so considered a safe bet.Iran is slowly emerging from isolation to become a powerful contender. Tothe east, China has had discussions to ensure that it is not denied a say.Till last winter there was another favourite: Afghanistan which couldprovide safe passage for such pipelines for the journey to the Karachi portin Pakistan. The Taliban’s uncomfortable friendship with fundamentalistmilitancy has caused acute embarrassment and raised doubts about the

security of the pipeline via territory under its control.

Whether the pipelines head west, south or east will determine the fate ofmuch of the region and have an undeniable impact on India in terms of itssecurity and social stability. The current effort for joint venturesinvolving China and Iran, if successful, can bring about a measure ofstability. Throughout the region, the old silk road is being re-exploredand the old trade routes are being rediscovered. Iran has closed a gap inthe rail network to link to Turkmenistan, Kazakhastan is firming up its

rail links to China and sea ports all over are being upgraded.

One development of deep strategic value to the region has been the apparentsuccess of Iran in its struggle with Turkey, the West’s favourite till now.Even as Washington has realised the folly of its anti-Iranian policies ofthe Eighties and started mending fences with the Islamic Republic, Iran hasbeen demonstrating great pragmatism in ensuring that its traditional rival,Turkey, does not gain enough of a foothold to pose a threat. It hasutilised its long border with the landlocked republics to sign a series oftransport and trade agreements. In recent years, it has signed an agreementto carry Turkmen gas to Europe via its territory and with Kazakhastan for

transfer to itself of crude through the Caspian Sea.

India’s close ties with Iran can ensure a role for it in the oil business.Policy planners in Delhi must also be watching with keen interest theemerging developments in Afghanistan where Taliban, the fundamentalistoutfit, driven to a corner and forsaken by its sponsors in the West, hasbeen forced to rethink its strategy. The American objective in propping upthe Taliban was to instal a friendly regime in Kabul that will ensure thesafe passage of gas and oil from the Central Asian region to Pakistan down

south, Karachi being the final destination.

After its disastrous dallying with extremism, the Taliban can be expectedto realise the benefits of cooperating with the other factions inAfghanistan so that a semblance of normality can be restored in the countryfor business to resume. With the prospect of a broadbased government inKabul, India can look forward to a change of environment. The strategic

importance of such a change cannot be over-emphasised.

– from The Hindu, Chennai, dated April 21, 1999